Polymarket Traders Lift Odds of a July 2026 Fed Hold to 85.5 Percent as Tariff-Driven Inflation Data Surface

The shift in contract pricing tracks new readings on price pressures while the New York Fed's leader downplays oil-price risks and households show signs of pulling back.

Traders on Polymarket have moved the probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 meeting to 85.5 percent. The latest contracts price in the chance that incoming inflation figures tied to tariffs will keep policymakers on hold rather than ease policy.

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