IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Outlook by 1.047 Million Barrels a Day, First Drop Since 2020

Renewed US-Iran fighting has forced the agency to revise its forecast downward and to question the surplus it once projected for 2027.

The International Energy Agency now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.047 million barrels a day in 2026. That would mark the first annual decline since the pandemic contraction of 2020. The revision arrives days after the collapse of a US-Iran ceasefire and follows a fresh round of strikes that have again raised the risk of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

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