Prediction Market Traders Dial Back Odds on Strait of Hormuz Normalization After Fresh US-Iran Clashes

Polymarket now shows only a 62.5 percent chance that traffic through the waterway returns to normal by the end of 2026.

Traders on the prediction platform lowered their assessment of a quick return to normal shipping after a series of US strikes and Iranian warnings made clear that the Strait remains under pressure. The market had already moved in response to earlier rounds of conflict, but the latest drop reflects new doubts about whether commercial traffic can resume without further disruption.

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